Mega Hyper Rares beat their SIR on price 5 of 6 times in Japanese, but only 2 in English

Delta Reign has two top printings of Mega Rayquaza ex: a gold Mega Hyper Rare and a Special Illustration Rare. The Pokémon Company revealed the Special Illustration Rare in English on Oct 30, and the Ultra Rare version was cut from the set, according to JosephWriterAnderson.com. Which of the two ends up more expensive in English? The earlier Mega Evolution sets say it’s closer to a coin flip than Japanese prices suggest.

In the five earlier Mega Evolution main sets, six Mega Pokémon have both printings. For their Japanese printings, the Mega Hyper Rare costs more than the same Pokémon’s Special Illustration Rare on five; on the sixth, Mega Charizard X ex, the Special Illustration Rare leads by about 7%. In English, the Mega Hyper Rare costs more on only two, the Special Illustration Rare on three, and one is about even.

TCGplayer market prices via Scrydex, so both columns are what US buyers pay: English on Oct 29, Japanese printings of the same artwork on Oct 30. We count two prices within 5% of each other as even. In Japan’s own market, in yen, the gold card costs more on all six. The special set Ascended Heroes fits too: its Japanese gold Mega Dragonite ex costs about 1.2 times its Special Illustration Rare, while in English the Special Illustration Rare costs about 2.8 times the gold.

Why it matters for Delta Reign#

Delta Reign comes out Nov 6. In Storm Emeralda, its Japanese printing, the gold Mega Rayquaza ex sold for about $747 on TCGplayer on Oct 30 against $238 for the Special Illustration Rare, 3.1 times as much. In Japan itself the gap is narrower: ¥50,000 against ¥32,000, about 1.6 times. The gold card’s TCGplayer price also carries one of the biggest US markups over its price in Japan among the gold cards here.

Our prediction system turns those Japanese prices into English ones card by card, and on Oct 30 prices it still puts the gold card first: $131 to $517, midpoint $270, against $95 to $313, midpoint $198, for the Special Illustration Rare. The two ranges overlap from $131 to $313, so either card could finish on top.

TCGplayer editor Peter Day’s ranking of the cards collectors want from Delta Reign, published Oct 29, calls it the other way: he expects the Special Illustration Rare to become the set’s most expensive card, pointing to Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black. Joseph Anderson of JosephWriterAnderson.com made the same call on Oct 30, as his “best guess.” At Oct 29 prices, Day’s three sets split. Pitch Black’s Special Illustration Rare leads its gold card by about 13%, Chaos Rising’s two are within 3%, and Perfect Order’s gold card sells for about 2.1 times its Special Illustration Rare.

The closest matches to Mega Rayquaza’s 3.1 times in Japanese split too: Mega Gardevoir (2.8 times) and Mega Lucario (3.9 times). In English, Mega Lucario’s gold card leads by about 26%, and Mega Gardevoir’s Special Illustration Rare leads by about 6%.

What to take from it#

Six cards is a small sample, and these are prices months after each set came out, not launch-week prices. But the direction held on all six, and on Mega Dragonite: next to its gold card, the Special Illustration Rare sells for relatively more in English than in Japanese. A big gap in Japanese prices doesn’t settle which Mega Rayquaza ex will lead in English.

The full comparison and how TCGplayer’s ten picks rank in our forecast are on the Delta Reign page; the chase card forecast is in our earlier story.