Flowing Fists: what we know about the Mega Lucario Z ex set, and our $92–$224 chase-card prediction

PokeBeach reported on Oct 20 that Flowing Fists, the English Mega Evolution main set after Delta Reign, will come out Feb 5, 2027, with prerelease events from Jan 23 to 31. The Pokémon Company hasn’t announced the name or the dates yet. PokeBeach also reports the set is the English version of Japan’s Aura Seeker, due Nov 27 and not yet officially revealed.

Its lead card, per PokeBeach, is Mega Lucario Z ex, which The Pokémon Company showed, still in development, alongside Sigilyph ex at the World Championships in August. The full card count isn’t announced, but the English cards revealed so far are numbered out of 080.

What we predict#

If Flowing Fists follows the earlier Mega Evolution main sets, expect this.

The date fits. A Feb 5 release would come 10 weeks after Aura Seeker. Every English Mega Evolution main set has followed its Japanese original by 7 to 14 weeks, counting Delta Reign’s scheduled Nov 6 release. It would also come 13 weeks after Delta Reign; earlier main sets have been 7 to 19 weeks apart.

About 116 cards, which would be the smallest Mega Evolution main set yet. Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black each had 36 cards numbered past the main set: 11 Illustration Rares, 18 Ultra Rares, 6 Special Illustration Rares, and 1 Mega Hyper Rare. On an 80-card main set, that makes about 116 cards, against 120 to 124 for those three.

The same suggested prices. All three carry the Mega Evolution-era MSRPs in retail price guides: $4.49 a pack, $26.94 for a 6-pack booster bundle, $49.99 for an Elite Trainer Box, $59.99 for the Pokémon Center version, and $161.64 for a 36-pack booster box (36 × $4.49).

The odds. Pull rates in the five earlier main sets are close enough to pool:

• Any Special Illustration Rare: about 1 in 85 packs (sets ranged from 1 in 80 to 1 in 101). With six, as the last three sets had, one specific card is about 1 in 508.
• The Mega Hyper Rare: about 1 in 1,150 packs. Each set’s published rate (1 in 1,000 to 1 in 1,667) rests on a few pulls, so treat it as rough.

A booster box would then have about a 35% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare and about a 3% chance of the Mega Hyper Rare.

A chase card around $92 to $224. Each released Mega Evolution main set has a Mega Hyper Rare of a headline Pokémon. On Oct 20 they sold for $92 (Mega Zygarde ex, Perfect Order) to $224 (Mega Lucario ex, Mega Evolution), with a midpoint of about $148. That’s a base rate from earlier sets, priced three to 13 months after release, not a launch-week price for Flowing Fists’ own card. The Mega Hyper Rare isn’t always the top card: Mega Charizard X ex’s Special Illustration Rare sells for $617.

Lucario has the best record. Its Mega Hyper Rare is the most valuable main-set one, at $223.63, and holds 0.85 times its Japanese price, against as little as 0.26 for the others. Its Special Illustration Rare sells for $167, about 2.1 times the Japanese one.

Packs worth less than their price. On Oct 20 prices, an earlier Mega Evolution pack’s hits averaged $1.22 to $2.79 and its other cards $1.26 to $1.53. Even both tops together, $4.32, are under $4.49.

What we can’t predict yet#

Which cards fill the chase slots, and what each will sell for. Once Aura Seeker’s cards are out and selling in Japan, we’ll forecast each Flowing Fists card from its Japanese price, as we did for Delta Reign.