Delta Reign forecast: Mega Rayquaza ex chase card likely $156 to $577 in English, about 1 in 1,150 packs

Delta Reign’s chase card, the Mega Rayquaza ex Mega Hyper Rare, is likely to sell for $156 to $577 in English once the set is out, according to our forecast. The midpoint is about $313. On the odds of earlier Mega Evolution sets, it will turn up about once every 1,150 packs.

Delta Reign comes out Nov 6, with prerelease events from Oct 24. No English cards have sold yet, so these are forecasts, built from data we already hold.

Built from the Japanese printing#

Delta Reign’s cards were first printed in Japan as Storm Emeralda, released July 31. The Japanese printing of the same Mega Rayquaza ex artwork sells for about $827 on TCGplayer, as of Oct 20.

English prices don’t simply copy Japanese ones. Across the earlier Mega Evolution sets, English Mega Hyper Rares sold for well under their Japanese twins, while cheaper cards usually sold for more in English. Our forecast applies those patterns, card by card, so the English chase card comes out far below the Japanese price.

The range is wide on purpose. When we test the method on earlier sets’ cards, hiding each set from it first, the real English price landed inside ranges like this about 3 times out of 4, and about 2 times out of 3 for Mega Hyper Rares.

The Special Illustration Rare version of Mega Rayquaza ex is forecast at $108 to $385. Japanese prices move fast: the Japanese Mega Hyper Rare sold for about $946 on Oct 14, six days earlier, and the forecast moves with it.

The odds#

Pull rates for the five earlier Mega Evolution main sets are close enough to pool, so we apply them to Delta Reign’s card counts:

• Any Special Illustration Rare: about 1 in 85 packs. Delta Reign has 6, so one specific SIR is about 1 in 508.
• The Mega Hyper Rare: about 1 in 1,150 packs. Earlier sets’ published rates for their one Mega Hyper Rare ran from 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 1,667.

A 36-pack booster box has about a 3% chance of the Mega Hyper Rare. Japanese packs are built differently, so we don’t use Storm Emeralda’s pull rates.

What a pack is worth#

Add up every card in an average pack, from the hits to the commons, and our forecast puts a Delta Reign pack at about $2.48 to $5.73. The Pokémon Company hasn’t announced Delta Reign’s list price; earlier Mega Evolution packs list at $4.49.

We’ll replace every forecast with measured pull rates and real prices after release. The full forecast, card by card, is on the Delta Reign page. How English and Japanese prices compare is in Are Japanese Pokémon cards worth more than English ones?