Release data
Delta Reign pull rates: a Special Illustration Rare is about 1 in 80 packs, like the other 2026 main sets
The first verified count, 1,836 packs from 51 booster boxes, puts every Delta Reign rarity in line with Perfect Order, Chaos Rising, and Pitch Black, and 4 of 5 inside our pre-release forecast.
Delta Reign’s Special Illustration Rares turn up about once every 80 packs, in line with the three other main sets released in 2026, according to the first verified count of the set’s packs.
The count comes from Danny Phantump, a YouTube channel that tallied 1,836 packs from 51 sealed booster boxes card by card: about 3 boxes opened by the channel and the rest by local game stores it works with. We checked every rarity’s total against the video, “The TRUTH About Delta Reign Pull Rates! Are They Really THAT BAD?”, published Nov 6, 2026.
In line with the 2026 main sets#
| Rarity | Delta Reign | Perfect Order | Chaos Rising | Pitch Black | Our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.75% | 20.97% | 20.30% | 21.02% | 20.23%–21.20% |
| Illustration Rare | 11.38% | 11.20% | 10.66% | 11.01% | 10.52%–11.27% |
| Ultra Rare | 8.01% | 8.54% | 8.29% | 8.30% | 7.95%–8.61% |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | 1.23% | 1.21% | 1.25% | 1.06%–1.32% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.06%–0.13% |
Share of packs with each rarity. The other sets’ rates are from TCGplayer studies we’ve verified.
A chi-square test, the standard check for whether samples disagree, finds no real difference from those three sets on any rarity. The closest call, p = 0.73, is far from the usual 0.05 cutoff.
More Illustration Rares, so each one is harder. Delta Reign has 14 Illustration Rares to Pitch Black’s 11, so at nearly the same rate, one specific IR is about 1 in 123 packs against 1 in 100, about 23% harder.
Two chase Mega Rayquaza ex, and the rarer one costs less#
The set’s chase Pokémon has two top printings. Assuming every card in a rarity is equally likely:
- The Special Illustration Rare (#138) is about 1 in 479 packs. Its TCGplayer market price was $305.16 on Nov 9, 2026, its latest price to pass our checks.
- The gold Mega Hyper Rare (#141) is about 1 in 918 packs, 1.9 times as hard. Its market price was $251.66 on Nov 12, 2026.
Those odds are averages. Half of collectors chasing the SIR would pull it within 332 packs; 1 in 10 would still be looking after 1,102. A 36-pack booster box has about a 36% chance of any SIR, 7.2% for the Rayquaza, and 3.8% for the gold card.
At the box’s $209.21 market price (Nov 9, 2026), pulling the SIR costs about $2,783 on average, 9.1 times the single. The gold card costs about $5,335, 21 times. If you want one card, buy the single.
The gold card’s rate leans high. A store opened the last of the 51 boxes to chase a second gold Mega Rayquaza ex and stopped when it hit, so the count of 2 is likely high, and 2 pulls can’t pin a rate down anyway. The other 2026 main sets measured 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 1,667.
Rayquaza was also the least-pulled of the 6 SIRs, 2 of 23: ordinary luck for a sample this size, not a sign of a short print.
Still a loss per pack, but the best we rank#
At card prices of Nov 12, 2026, the hits in an average pack were worth about $3.14, against $7.11 for a loose pack (Nov 9, 2026): $0.44 back per $1, or $0.70 at the $4.49 list price. That’s the best of the 28 sets we rank by pack value, and a booster box returns $0.54 per $1. Both still lose money on average.
How our forecast did#
The measured rates landed inside the ranges of our pre-release forecast for 4 of 5 rarities. That forecast pooled the five earlier Mega Evolution main sets. Illustration Rares, at 11.38%, came in 0.11 points above the top of their range, inside this sample’s own 95% range of 9.99% to 12.90%.
One count so far#
Smaller pre-release tallies with unnamed openers, and streams without a published count, aren’t in these numbers. TCGplayer hadn’t published a Delta Reign study as of Nov 12, 2026; we’ll add one once we’ve checked it.
Every rate and its range is on the Delta Reign page, which updates as openings are verified. To price a chase, try the pack simulator or How many packs?.