Pulling a set's top 5 measured cards from packs costs 14 to 52 times as much as buying them, in all 30 sets

Buying the cards you want costs less than opening packs for them, and it isn’t close. In all 30 sets where we’ve measured pull rates and can price five cards, the average pack spend to pull a set’s top five is about 14 to 52 times what the five cards sell for as singles.

The numbers come from our want list tool. For each set, we took the five most valuable cards whose rarity has a measured pull rate, gave each card an equal share of its rarity’s rate, and counted the average packs until all five turn up. Packs are priced at the loose-pack market price. We leave out Shining Fates and Champion’s Path, whose rates are rough estimates from tallies of opening videos; Shining Fates would otherwise top the list at about 85 times.

Closest in 30th Celebration, furthest in Battle Styles#

30th Celebration comes closest. Its top five, the Classic Collection Lugia, Charizard, and Magikarp plus the Mew ex and Gengar ex Special Illustration Rares, cost about $459 as singles. Pulling all five takes about 602 packs on average, or about $6,256 at $10.40 a pack: about 14 times the singles.

Battle Styles is furthest apart. Its top five, led by the Tyranitar V alternate art at $226.05, cost about $442. Pulling them takes about 2,328 packs, or about $22,908 at $9.84 a pack: about 52 times as much.

The median set sits at about 30 times. In dollars, Evolving Skies is the steepest: about $145,000 in packs for five cards that sell for about $4,872, led by the Umbreon VMAX alternate art.

Mega Evolution ranks second at about 50 times, but two of its five cards are Mega Hyper Rares whose rate rests on about 4 pulls, so treat it as a rough estimate.

An average, not a promise#

Between 58% and 65% of runs finish within the average pack count, but being 90% sure of all five takes roughly 1.7 to 2 times as many packs: 1,032 packs (about $10,733) in 30th Celebration and 4,192 packs (about $41,249) in Battle Styles. The last card on a list is the slow one.

What the math leaves out#

The pack spend ignores the other cards you’d open. They help, but not enough. In the 27 sets where we can value an average pack’s hits, they’re worth less than the pack sells for. Credit every pack with their full market value, before selling fees, and buying still costs less in all 27, closest in 30th Celebration at about 7.5 times. The other three have hits we can’t yet rate.

Paying list price doesn’t flip it either. At $4.49 a pack ($3.99 for the Sword & Shield sets), buying still costs less in all 30, from about 2.8 times in Evolving Skies up.

Only cards with measured odds count. That leaves out pricier cards like 30th Celebration’s three Mew RGB Rares at about $3,200 to $4,500 each and the Black White Rares in Black Bolt and White Flare (about $450 to $610).

Rate uncertainty doesn’t change the answer: with every rate at the top of its 95% range, 30th Celebration still comes out about 12 times and Battle Styles about 39 times. The math treats cards as independent and every card in a rarity as equally likely. Card prices (TCGplayer market, via Scrydex) and loose-pack prices are from Nov 9. Prices change daily, and none of this is financial advice.

Every set’s top five is in the want list tool, ready to load. For one card at a time, see Rip or buy the single?.