Release data
Special Illustration Rares are about 2.7× rarer in main sets than in early 2023
Verified openings put early Scarlet & Violet SIRs near 1 in 32 packs. Since 2024 the main-set median is about 1 in 85, and every main set sits between 1 in 80 and 1 in 101.
Special Illustration Rares in Pokémon main sets are about 2.7 times rarer than they were in the first Scarlet & Violet year, according to our registry of verified pack openings.
Scarlet & Violet, Paldea Evolved, and Obsidian Flames — the three early-2023 main sets we track — each sat near 1 in 32 packs for any Special Illustration Rare. Paradox Rift, released in November 2023, was already harder at about 1 in 47. From Temporal Forces (March 2024) on, every main set in our data lands between about 1 in 80 and 1 in 101 packs. Mega Evolution is the rarest so far at about 1 in 101.
The median since 2024 is about 1 in 85, about 2.7 times the early-2023 median of 1 in 32. By calendar year, the main-set medians are about 1 in 86 for 2024, 1 in 89 for 2025, and 1 in 81 for the 2026 sets measured so far.
Special sets still break the pattern. 30th Celebration is the kindest set we measure at about 1 in 20 packs. Prismatic Evolutions sits near 1 in 45, and Ascended Heroes near 1 in 69. Mixing those into a year average would hide how much main-set chase cards tightened.
The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. The figures come from pooled openings in our evidence registry — thousands of packs for each main set in this comparison, with sample size and a 95% confidence range on each set page.
Special Illustration Rares got rarer
Median chance of any Special Illustration Rare in one pack, from 161,094 published openings. Main sets only in the year comparison — special sets are kinder and sit below.
Main sets in 2026 are about 2.6× as hard as in 2023(1 in 32 → 1 in 81)
Main-set median by release year
Special sets are the exception: median 1 in 45 across 5 special sets we track — kinder than any main-set year above.
Every set we measured (20)
Main-set medians by release year, from our verified openings. Special sets are kinder and sit outside this comparison.
Poké Life · poke-life.comFrom 161,094 packs in our pull-rate registry
The full write-up, with method notes, is in our research article, Special Illustration Rares got about 2.7× rarer after 2023. For the odds of one specific SIR inside the slot, see How many packs for one specific SIR?.