How rare is Lillie's Determination in Mega Evolution?

About 1 in 267 packs contain it, assuming every Ultra Rare is equally likely. Open 185 packs for an even chance, or 615 for a 90% chance.

How much is Lillie's Determination (#169) worth?

About $19.65 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.

Is it cheaper to buy Lillie's Determination or open packs for it?

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 119.8× its price on average. At $8.81 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $2,355 on average to pull it.

What other Lillie's Determination cards are in Mega Evolution?

#184 (Special Illustration Rare, $51.90).

Mega Evolution · Ultra Rare

Lillie's Determination #169

Lillie's Determination (#169) is an Ultra Rare from Mega Evolution, released Sep 26, 2025. It sells for about $19.65 (TCGplayer market price, Oct 12, 2026). About 1 in 267 packs contain this exact card. Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 119.8× its price on average.

Price as of Oct 12, 2026Very sure

All Mega Evolution cards Open packs in the simulator

Shown to identify the card.

$19.65Market priceOct 12, 2026
1 in 267PacksChance per pack
$2,355Average cost to pullAt $8.81 a pack
Ultra RareRarity22 cards share it

Your odds of pulling Lillie's Determination

Chance of at least one copy, assuming every Ultra Rare in the set is equally likely.

How we measured →

Product	Packs	Chance	Market price
1 pack	1	<1%	$8.81
Booster bundle	6	2%	$67.19
Elite Trainer Box	9	3%	$123.93
Pokémon Center ETB	11	4%	—
Booster box	36	13%	$303.71

185 packs give you an even chance, and 615 packs a 90% chance. Allowing for sampling error, the true rate is likely between 1 in 244 and 1 in 294 packs. Try the how many packs calculator for other targets.

Open packs or buy the single?

Buy the single$19.65

Open packs for it, on average$2,355

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 119.8× its price on average. That's 267 packs at $8.81 (today's market price for a pack). The open-or-buy calculator counts the value of everything else you'd pull.

Price history

Daily TCGplayer market price since Oct 12, 2026.

Not enough daily prices recorded yet. The chart appears after a second day.

Other Lillie's Determination cards

#184 · Special Illustration Rare$51.90

Quick answers

How rare is Lillie's Determination in Mega Evolution?: About 1 in 267 packs contain it, assuming every Ultra Rare is equally likely. Open 185 packs for an even chance, or 615 for a 90% chance.
How much is Lillie's Determination (#169) worth?: About $19.65 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.
Is it cheaper to buy Lillie's Determination or open packs for it?: Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 119.8× its price on average. At $8.81 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $2,355 on average to pull it.
What other Lillie's Determination cards are in Mega Evolution?: #184 (Special Illustration Rare, $51.90).

Prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification. Pull rates come from the verified openings on our Mega Evolution page.