How rare is Dawn in Phantasmal Flames?

About 1 in 400 packs contain it, assuming every Special Illustration Rare is equally likely. Open 277 packs for an even chance, or 920 for a 90% chance.

How much is Dawn (#129) worth?

About $17.63 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.

Is it cheaper to buy Dawn or open packs for it?

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 272.0× its price on average. At $11.99 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $4,796 on average to pull it.

Phantasmal Flames · Special Illustration Rare

Dawn #129

Dawn (#129) is a Special Illustration Rare from Phantasmal Flames, released Nov 14, 2025. It sells for about $17.63 (TCGplayer market price, Oct 12, 2026). About 1 in 400 packs contain this exact card. Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 272.0× its price on average.

Price as of Oct 12, 2026Very sure

All Phantasmal Flames cards Open packs in the simulator

Shown to identify the card.

$17.63Market priceOct 12, 2026
1 in 400PacksChance per pack
$4,796Average cost to pullAt $11.99 a pack
Special Illustration RareRarity5 cards share it

Your odds of pulling Dawn

Chance of at least one copy, assuming every Special Illustration Rare in the set is equally likely.

How we measured →

Product	Packs	Chance	Market price
1 pack	1	<1%	$11.99
Booster bundle	6	1%	$85.03
Elite Trainer Box	9	2%	$148.95
Pokémon Center ETB	11	3%	—
Booster box	36	9%	$395.14

277 packs give you an even chance, and 920 packs a 90% chance. Allowing for sampling error, the true rate is likely between 1 in 313 and 1 in 514 packs. Try the how many packs calculator for other targets.

Open packs or buy the single?

Buy the single$17.63

Open packs for it, on average$4,796

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 272.0× its price on average. That's 400 packs at $11.99 (today's market price for a pack). The open-or-buy calculator counts the value of everything else you'd pull.

Price history

Daily TCGplayer market price since Oct 12, 2026.

Not enough daily prices recorded yet. The chart appears after a second day.

Other Dawn cards

#118 · Ultra Rare$5.30

Quick answers

How rare is Dawn in Phantasmal Flames?: About 1 in 400 packs contain it, assuming every Special Illustration Rare is equally likely. Open 277 packs for an even chance, or 920 for a 90% chance.
How much is Dawn (#129) worth?: About $17.63 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.
Is it cheaper to buy Dawn or open packs for it?: Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 272.0× its price on average. At $11.99 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $4,796 on average to pull it.
What other Dawn cards are in Phantasmal Flames?: #118 (Ultra Rare, $5.30).

Prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification. Pull rates come from the verified openings on our Phantasmal Flames page.