Guide2 min read
How many packs does it take to pull one specific SIR?
Pulling any Special Illustration Rare and pulling the one you want are very different odds. Here's the math in plain numbers, set by set.
Guide
~1,000packs, on average, for one specific Destined Rivals SIR
New to pull rates? The terms in 30 seconds
- “1 in 92 packs”
- On average, you'd open 92 packs to pull one. It's an average, not a promise: you could hit it in pack 3 or go 300 without one.
- SIR (Special Illustration Rare)
- Full-art cards with special artwork. Usually a set's most valuable pulls.
- IR (Illustration Rare)
- Art cards of single Pokémon. More common than SIRs, and often collected as a set.
- Hyper Rare
- The gold cards. Among the rarest pulls in modern sets.
- Double Rare / Ultra Rare
- The ex and full-art cards that make up most of a set's hits.
- Booster box / ETB
- A booster box has 36 packs. An Elite Trainer Box (ETB) has 9, plus sleeves and accessories.
On this page
Open a booster box of Destined Rivals and you have about a 33% chance of pulling a Special Illustration Rare. Pull the one you actually want? That’s a very different number, and it’s the one most people underestimate.
Key takeaways
- In Destined Rivals, any SIR is about 1 in 92 packs, but one specific SIR is about 1 in 1,009 packs.
- “1 in 1,009” doesn’t mean 1,009 packs gets you the card. After that many packs you’d have about a 63% chance.
- Chasing one specific SIR in packs costs far more, on average, than buying it.
Any SIR vs. the one you want#
When you see SIR odds quoted for a set, that’s the chance of pulling any SIR. Destined Rivals has 11 of them sharing that luck. So while an SIR turns up about 1 in 92 packs, the specific one you want, say Team Rocket’s Mewtwo ex, is about 1 in 1,009.
That’s 11 times harder, and it’s why “I opened a box and got an SIR” and “I opened a box and got the SIR” are such different stories.
Why “1 in 1,000” doesn’t mean 1,000 packs#
Odds are per pack, and every pack is a fresh roll, so “1 in 1,009” is an average, not a countdown. The packs you’ve already opened don’t make the next one any luckier. That means:
- Open 1,009 packs and you have about a 63% chance of pulling that specific SIR, not a sure thing.
- To be 90% sure, you’d need about 2,323 packs.
- On average, pulling it costs about $4,530 at the pack’s MSRP of $4.49.
Specific SIR odds in every set we track#
How hard one specific SIR is depends on two things: how often SIRs show up in that set, and how many SIRs there are to split that luck. Here’s every set we have data for, easiest first. Compare the “average cost to pull it” with what the cards actually sell for.
| Set | Any SIR | One specific SIR | Chance in 36 packs | Average cost to pull it | Priciest SIR today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obsidian Flames6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 32 | 1 in 192 | 17.2% | $861 | $94.33Charizard ex |
| 30th Celebration10 SIRs in the set | 1 in 20 | 1 in 205 | 16.1% | $920 | $85.02Mew ex |
| 1517 SIRs in the set | 1 in 32 | 1 in 225 | 14.8% | $1,011 | $320.91Charizard ex |
| Scarlet & Violet10 SIRs in the set | 1 in 32 | 1 in 317 | 10.7% | $1,425 | $68.71Gardevoir ex |
| Phantasmal Flames5 SIRs in the set | 1 in 80 | 1 in 400 | 8.6% | $1,796 | $634.87Mega Charizard X ex |
| Paldean Fates8 SIRs in the set | 1 in 58 | 1 in 465 | 7.5% | $2,088 | $865.73Mew ex |
| Paldea Evolved15 SIRs in the set | 1 in 32 | 1 in 473 | 7.3% | $2,125 | $53.10Tinkaton ex |
| Pitch Black6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 80 | 1 in 480 | 7.2% | $2,155 | $145.85Mega Darkrai ex |
| Perfect Order6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 81 | 1 in 488 | 7.1% | $2,190 | $86.78Meowth ex |
| Chaos Rising6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 83 | 1 in 496 | 7.0% | $2,226 | $129.25Mega Greninja ex |
| Journey Together6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 86 | 1 in 517 | 6.7% | $2,322 | $89.83Lillie's Clefairy ex |
| Stellar Crown6 SIRs in the set | 1 in 90 | 1 in 541 | 6.4% | $2,427 | $70.42Dachsbun ex |
| Paradox Rift15 SIRs in the set | 1 in 47 | 1 in 711 | 4.9% | $3,192 | $45.14Altaria ex |
| Temporal Forces10 SIRs in the set | 1 in 85 | 1 in 855 | 4.1% | $3,838 | $62.17Raging Bolt ex |
| Twilight Masquerade11 SIRs in the set | 1 in 85 | 1 in 940 | 3.8% | $4,221 | $320.74Greninja ex |
| Surging Sparks11 SIRs in the set | 1 in 87 | 1 in 957 | 3.7% | $4,295 | $276.42Pikachu ex |
| Destined Rivals11 SIRs in the set | 1 in 92 | 1 in 1,009 | 3.5% | $4,530 | $378.19Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex |
| Mega Evolution10 SIRs in the set | 1 in 101 | 1 in 1,010 | 3.5% | $4,535 | $170.26Mega Gardevoir ex |
| Prismatic Evolutions32 SIRs in the set | 1 in 45 | 1 in 1,441 | 2.5% | $6,472 | $1,285Umbreon ex |
| Ascended Heroes22 SIRs in the set | 1 in 69 | 1 in 1,528 | 2.3% | $6,860 | $833.70Mega Gengar ex |
Assumes every SIR in a set is equally likely, and $4.49 a pack (MSRP). Prices are TCGplayer market prices. In every set with prices, even the priciest SIR sells for less than the average cost to pull it.
So should you chase it?#
If you want one particular card, buy the single. It’s almost always far cheaper, and you get exactly the card you want.
Open packs when the opening is the fun part: the surprise, the hunt, the chance of a big hit you weren’t expecting. Set a budget for that experience, and treat any SIR as a bonus rather than the goal. Our Destined Rivals study runs this comparison card by card.