Pull rate analysis2 min read
Special Illustration Rares got about 2.7× rarer after 2023
Main-set SIRs went from about 1 in 32 packs in early Scarlet & Violet to about 1 in 80–101 from Temporal Forces on. The median since 2024 is about 1 in 85.
Pull rate analysis
~2.7× rarermain-set SIRs since 2024 vs early 2023
New to pull rates? The terms in 30 seconds
- “1 in 92 packs”
- On average, you'd open 92 packs to pull one. It's an average, not a promise: you could hit it in pack 3 or go 300 without one.
- SIR (Special Illustration Rare)
- Full-art cards with special artwork. Usually a set's most valuable pulls.
- IR (Illustration Rare)
- Art cards of single Pokémon. More common than SIRs, and often collected as a set.
- Hyper Rare
- The gold cards. Among the rarest pulls in modern sets.
- Double Rare / Ultra Rare
- The ex and full-art cards that make up most of a set's hits.
- Booster box / ETB
- A booster box has 36 packs. An Elite Trainer Box (ETB) has 9, plus sleeves and accessories.
Special Illustration Rares — usually a set’s most valuable modern cards — got much harder to pull after the first Scarlet & Violet year. The shift shows up clearly when you line up every main set we track by release date.
Key takeaways
- Early 2023 main sets (Scarlet & Violet, Paldea Evolved, and Obsidian Flames) sat near 1 in 32 packs for any SIR.
- Paradox Rift (Nov 2023) was already harder at 1 in 47.
- From Temporal Forces on, every main set we track sits around 1 in 80–1 in 101. The median since 2024 is about 1 in 85 — roughly 2.7× as rare as early 2023.
- Mega Evolution is the rarest main set in our data at 1 in 101.
- Special sets break the pattern. The kindest overall is 30th Celebration at 1 in 20.
The year-by-year picture#
The chart uses main sets only for the year comparison. Special sets are kinder on purpose and would flatten the story if you mixed them in.
Special Illustration Rares got rarer
Median chance of any Special Illustration Rare in one pack, from 161,094 published openings. Main sets only in the year comparison — special sets are kinder and sit below.
Main sets in 2026 are about 2.6× as hard as in 2023(1 in 32 → 1 in 81)
Main-set median by release year
Special sets are the exception: median 1 in 45 across 5 special sets we track — kinder than any main-set year above.
Every set we measured (20)
Scarlet & Violet, Paldea Evolved, and Obsidian Flames sat near 1 in 32. Paradox Rift dropped to 1 in 47. Main sets since 2024 cluster around 1 in 80– 1 in 101, with a median of 1 in 85. Calendar-year medians: 2023 1 in 32, then 2024 1 in 86; 2025 1 in 89; 2026 1 in 81.
Poké Life · poke-life.comFrom 161,094 packs in our pull-rate registry
What changed#
Nothing in the official checklist told collectors the rarity slot had moved. The Pokémon Company does not publish pull rates. The change shows up only when you pool verified openings: our registry now covers 161,094 packs across 42 datasets for 25 sets.
The practical effect is simple. A chase Special Illustration Rare in a 2024–2026 main set is a much longer shot than it was in Scarlet & Violet, Paldea Evolved, or Obsidian Flames. Special sets — 151, Prismatic Evolutions, Ascended Heroes, 30th Celebration — still ship kinder SIR rates, which is why anniversary and Eeveelution products feel so different from a standard main-set box.
For one specific card inside the SIR slot, divide by how many SIRs share the luck. That math is in How many packs for one specific SIR?. Odds for every rarity, with confidence ranges, are on each set page and in our open data.