How rare is Lt. Surge's Bargain in Mega Evolution?

About 1 in 1,010 packs contain it, assuming every Special Illustration Rare is equally likely. Open 700 packs for an even chance, or 2,325 for a 90% chance.

How much is Lt. Surge's Bargain (#185) worth?

About $14.22 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.

Is it cheaper to buy Lt. Surge's Bargain or open packs for it?

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 625.8× its price on average. At $8.81 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $8,899 on average to pull it.

Mega Evolution · Special Illustration Rare

Lt. Surge's Bargain #185

Lt. Surge's Bargain (#185) is a Special Illustration Rare from Mega Evolution, released Sep 26, 2025. It sells for about $14.22 (TCGplayer market price, Oct 12, 2026). About 1 in 1,010 packs contain this exact card. Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 625.8× its price on average.

Price as of Oct 12, 2026Fairly sure

All Mega Evolution cards Open packs in the simulator

Shown to identify the card.

$14.22Market priceOct 12, 2026
1 in 1,010PacksChance per pack
$8,899Average cost to pullAt $8.81 a pack
Special Illustration RareRarity10 cards share it

Your odds of pulling Lt. Surge's Bargain

Chance of at least one copy, assuming every Special Illustration Rare in the set is equally likely.

How we measured →

Product	Packs	Chance	Market price
1 pack	1	<1%	$8.81
Booster bundle	6	<1%	$67.19
Elite Trainer Box	9	<1%	$123.93
Pokémon Center ETB	11	1%	—
Booster box	36	4%	$303.71

700 packs give you an even chance, and 2,325 packs a 90% chance. Allowing for sampling error, the true rate is likely between 1 in 778 and 1 in 1,343 packs. Try the how many packs calculator for other targets.

Open packs or buy the single?

Buy the single$14.22

Open packs for it, on average$8,899

Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 625.8× its price on average. That's 1,010 packs at $8.81 (today's market price for a pack). The open-or-buy calculator counts the value of everything else you'd pull.

Price history

Daily TCGplayer market price since Oct 12, 2026.

Not enough daily prices recorded yet. The chart appears after a second day.

Quick answers

How rare is Lt. Surge's Bargain in Mega Evolution?: About 1 in 1,010 packs contain it, assuming every Special Illustration Rare is equally likely. Open 700 packs for an even chance, or 2,325 for a 90% chance.
How much is Lt. Surge's Bargain (#185) worth?: About $14.22 at TCGplayer market prices on Oct 12, 2026.
Is it cheaper to buy Lt. Surge's Bargain or open packs for it?: Buying the single is cheaper: opening packs for it costs about 625.8× its price on average. At $8.81 a pack (today's market price for a pack), you'd spend about $8,899 on average to pull it.

Prices: Scrydex, Oct 12, 2026. Card images are shown for identification. Pull rates come from the verified openings on our Mega Evolution page.