Calculator
Compare sets side by side
Standing in the card aisle deciding between packs? Pick up to three sets to see whose odds, prices, and chase cards come out ahead.
30th Celebration gives you the best shot at a hit: 49% in one pack, vs 38% for Pitch Black.
For your money, though, Chaos Rising is cheaper per pull: about $15 of packs at today's prices.
- 30th CelebrationBest odds49%in one pack
1 in 2.1 packs · about $24 of packs per pull Very sure
- 38%in one pack
1 in 2.6 packs · about $15 of packs per pull Very sure
- Chaos RisingCheapest per pull37%in one pack
1 in 2.7 packs · about $15 of packs per pull Very sure
A hit is any card from a pack's hit slots: Double Rare or better (V cards and up in older sets), ACE SPECs, and Master Ball patterns. Poké Ball patterns and holo Energy don't count. “Per pull” is today's pack price times the packs it takes on average. No number of packs guarantees a pull, and the box a pack comes in doesn't change its odds.
See every numberEvery rarity, every price level, pack prices, and top chase cards, side by side
| Measure | 30th CelebrationBest odds in 3 of 5 rarities | Pitch BlackBest odds in 2 of 5 rarities | Chaos RisingBest odds in 1 of 5 rarities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pull rates per pack | |||
| Double Rare | Best1 in 4.821% a packVery sure | Best1 in 4.821% a packVery sure | 1 in 4.920% a packVery sure |
| Illustration Rare | Best1 in 5.120% a packVery sure | 1 in 9.111% a packVery sure | 1 in 9.411% a packVery sure |
| Classic Collection | 1 in 9.910% a packVery sure | Not in this set | Not in this set |
| Ultra Rare | Not in this set | Best1 in 128.3% a packVery sure | 1 in 128.3% a packVery sure |
| Special Illustration Rare | Best1 in 204.9% a packVery sure | 1 in 801.3% a packFairly sure | 1 in 831.2% a packVery sure |
| Futuristic Rare | 1 in 1200.83% a packFairly sure | Not in this set | Not in this set |
| Mega Hyper Rare | Not in this set | 1 in 1,1110.09% a packRough estimate | Best1 in 1,0000.10% a packRough estimate |
| Hits and card values | |||
| Any hit | Best1 in 2.149% a pack | 1 in 2.638% a pack | 1 in 2.737% a pack |
| A $2+ card | Best1 in 3.827% a pack | 1 in 8.412% a pack | 1 in 9.510% a pack |
| A $5+ card | Best1 in 6.216% a pack | 1 in 224.6% a pack | 1 in 273.7% a pack |
| A $10+ card | Best1 in 8.711% a pack | 1 in 751.3% a pack | 1 in 761.3% a pack |
| A $20+ card | Best1 in 137.5% a pack | 1 in 751.3% a pack | 1 in 901.1% a pack |
| A $50+ card | Best1 in 362.8% a pack | 1 in 1970.51% a pack | 1 in 3310.30% a pack |
| A $100+ card | Best1 in 1480.68% a pack | 1 in 3350.30% a pack | 1 in 3310.30% a pack |
| A $200+ card | None in the set | None in the set | None in the set |
| Price and value | |||
| Pack price today | $11.66MSRP $4.49 | $5.74MSRP $4.49 | Best$5.60MSRP $4.49 |
| Hits worth per pack | Best$4.7040% of today's price | $1.0819% of today's price | $0.8515% of today's price |
| 36 packs at MSRP break even | Best44% | 2.0% | 0.76% |
| Chase cards | |||
| Top card | Lugia$175 · 1 in 296 packs | Mega Darkrai ex$137 · 1 in 480 packs | Mega Greninja ex$113 · 1 in 1,000 packs |
| No. 2 | Charizard$155 · 1 in 296 packs | Mega Darkrai ex$125 · 1 in 1,111 packs | Mega Greninja ex$112 · 1 in 496 packs |
| No. 3 | Magikarp$76 · 1 in 296 packs | Morpeko ex$58 · 1 in 480 packs | Cinccino ex$36 · 1 in 496 packs |
| Evidence | |||
| Packs behind the odds | 3,256 | 4,354Provisional pack layout | 8,680Provisional pack layout |
Odds are per pack, from verified openings, and the same in every product of a set. Percentages are your chance of at least one in one pack. Close odds marked “Rough estimate” can swap places as more openings come in. “Hits worth per pack” is the average net sale value of a pack's hits after selling fees; dollar levels use market price before fees. Pack prices: Scrydex, Oct 26, 2026.
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Picking packs at the store
The box doesn't change the odds
A pack from a blister, a bundle, an ETB, or a booster box has the same pull rates. Pick the set first, then the product with the lowest price per pack.
Better odds aren't always better value
A set can hand out SIRs more often and still return less, if its chase cards sell for less. Try “SIR,” then “Most value” or “$50,” and see if the winner changes.
Trust the confident numbers
“Very sure” odds come from thousands of opened packs. A “Rough estimate” can move as more openings come in, so a close race between two of them is a coin flip.
Want one specific card? How many packs shows the count for even odds, and rip or buy the single shows whether buying it outright costs less. Buying from more than one set? The pack mix calculator adds up the whole haul.